In this election, all eyes are on Pennsylvania to determine the fate of the white house—but Pennsylvanians could see some big changes in our own state politics after November 5.

There has been an abundance of bipartisan collaboration— and just total gridlock— in the Pennsylvania legislature the past two years.

For the first time since 2010, Democrats were in control of the House of Representatives for the 2023/24 session. They have a 1 person majority.

Republicans have held the Senate since 1980 (with 1 year of Democrat control in 1993).

The question looming ahead of the legislature on November 5 is if Democrats can keep their control, or if the state will slip back to its Republican legislature and Democrat governor dynamic that has existed since 2015. 

The Pennsylvania House of Representatives has 203 seats—and all of them are up for election every two years.

Right now, there are 102 Democrats and 101 Republicans.

“So any small movement, one way or the other, can either increase the majority or flip it back to the Republicans,” said Christopher Nicholas, a Republican campaign strategist.

With 203 individual races—it can be hard to keep track of which seats are competitive.

“There's more of them. They break later, so they can be harder to kind of figure out and know what's going to happen with them,” said Nicholas.

Still—there are some characteristics that can signal if a House seat is a hot race. For example, Is the representative newly elected in a district that used to be held by the other party?

“First term state reps are the most vulnerable that they will ever be,” said Brittany Crampsie, a Democrat campaign strategist.“So new seats that they won and flipped to take the majority are going to be their top tier protects.”

There are 23 first term Republican representatives and 29 first term Democrats.

Through the 2023/24 session there were ten special elections in the House, but all 8 Democrats and 2 Republicans filled a role already held by their respective party.

Crampsie also noted there are representatives who have held seats for multiple years, but because of redistricting after the 2020 census their seats are more competitive. For Democrats, she says politicians will have to separate themselves from the top of the ticket.

“But, you know, once they get back to Harrisburg, they're still votes for Democratic leadership,” Crampsie said. "So they're, you know, within the spectrum of what you'd expect from Democratic candidates. But they're going to need some trump votes to to carry it across.”

A good website to determine how much partisan lean a district has is Dave’s Redistricting.

As the parties scramble to keep their flipped seats but also flip new seats...

“The best case scenario for either party is to get two seats one way or the other,” said Nicholas.

Out of the 203 House seats, around 90 are uncontested.