By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

New York (CNN) — President-elect Donald Trump says Americans not being able to afford groceries will be a relic of the past. “They’re going to be affording their groceries very soon,” he said Thursday before ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange, where he was honored as Time’s “Person of the Year.”

Americans paid 22% more for groceries last month compared to when Trump left office in January 2021, per November Consumer Price Index data released earlier this week. And, compared to February 2020, before the pandemic, Americans paid 27% more for groceries in November.

Trump mentioned “an old woman” who went to a grocery store intending to buy three apples. “She put them down on the counter, and she looked and she saw the price, and she said, ‘Would you excuse me?’ And she walked one of the apples back to the refrigerator,” he said.

On the campaign trail, Trump predominantly focused on drilling more oil as a means to help Americans afford more food. But, ahead of his return to the White House, his strategy to bring grocery prices down has shifted slightly to focus on supply chain issues in addition to drilling more oil.

‘It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up’

Speaking in front of a table of packaged foods, Trump used an August press conference to draw attention to food inflation during his campaign for president. “Grocery prices have skyrocketed,” he said.

“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on day one,” Trump continued. “We will drill, baby, drill,” he said, referring to increasing domestic oil production. “That’s going to bring down prices of everything.”

(Economists generally prefer to see prices increase modestly across an economy rather than fall, a scenario known as deflation, because it can cause people to put off purchases. And often, when prices for goods fall significantly, it’s because more people are unemployed and the economy is in a downturn.)

“It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up,” Trump said in his Time Magazine “Person of the Year” interview published Thursday, referring to grocery prices. “You know, it’s very hard…But I think that they will. I think that energy is going to bring them down.”

“I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down,” he continued. “You know, the supply chain is still broken.”

That was one of the major factors that caused food prices to spike during the pandemic: Shipping availability decreased and freight times increased, contributing to shortages of imported food. But those issues have since more or less resolved.

Recently, monthly import cargo volume ran at near-record highs, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, which compiled monthly Global Port Tracker reports.

At Trump’s August press conference that focused on grocery prices, he brought up “supply chain problems” as a contributor to elevated housing costs, but not as one specifically contributing to elevated food costs.

His slightly new approach on grocery prices comes as weekly US crude oil production as of December 6 hit a new record of 13.6 million barrels per day, according to federal data dating back to 1983. Trump himself acknowledged that Thursday saying, “there is no country in the world” that produces more oil than the US. That’s helped push down gas prices, which has in turn helped lower the cost of transporting food to grocery stores nationwide.

Experts have told CNN that drilling more, even if feasible, would not move the dial much in terms of lower grocery prices due to a plethora of other factors. Focusing on improving supply chains could prove to be a more effective strategy, though it will not be easy to tackle.

For instance, traffic through two critical international shipping arteries has been bogged down dramatically: the Suez Canal, due to Houthi militants’ monthslong attacks on vessels; and the Panama Canal, due to a historic drought.

Some of Trump’s proposals risk raising food prices significantly

Still, even if Trump helps improve supply chain issues, other policies he’s pledged to enact, including broad-based tariffs and mass deportations of migrants who entered the country illegally, risk raising food prices substantially.

On the deportation side, the food and agriculture industries rely heavily on migrant labor. Without it, those industries will likely contend with labor shortages, which, as a result, could force them to have to increase wages. The higher cost of labor would then presumably get passed down to consumers in the form of higher prices. It could also result in food shortages if there aren’t enough workers to support food production, likely putting further upward pressure on prices.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2024 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.