During the recent election, Republican candidates referenced the increase of drugs, like fentanyl coming over the southern border as worsening the opioid crisis in the United States.

Pennsylvania’s drug supply has complicated sources though.

Of the 4,722 overdose deaths that happened in Pennsylvania in 2023, fentanyl was involved in 76.7% of the cases.

PA Groundhogs, a statewide group that tracks drug supply, says fentanyl used in Pennsylvania is rarely sourced from the southern border.

“A lot of the fentanyl we are seeing, the supply isn't actually coming from over the border. A lot of that now is being produced locally within smaller drug markets,” Grimm said, a volunteer with the organization that analyzes their data. "They're shipping in pre-cursor chemicals from Canada, Mexico, China— any port of entry you can find. And they're producing it locally in the area. It's a lot easier to do that. It's way easier to fly under the radar that way.”

Grimm says that of the thousand samples of fentanyl the group has, 2 can be traced back to southern border crossing supply. The key to identifying a drugs source relies on if precursors show up in drug testing.

Precursor chemicals are the ingredients for creating drugs like fentanyl.

"When it comes to over the border, cartel manufacturing… they’ve refined it, to the point where there's no precursors, or very little trace,” Grimm said. “Whereas locally it's not as scientific. Because the precursors have no effect on the human body. So they can get away with not doing it 100%."

PA Groundhogs says border security impacts what kinds of drugs come into the U.S

“When it comes to tightening the border, it's really a catch 22 of… as you do it more, more potent things will come over and you're not going to really see any positive return.”

A spokesperson for Pennsylvania’s attorney general-elect Dave Sunday said drug supply is one piece in a complicated puzzle. Sunday’s transition team will have a member dedicated to reviewing how the office can improve response to the drug and substance abuse crisis.

For Grimm, the path to less drug deaths starts with reform at home.

“A lot of the problem with people seeking help is in the recovery sphere. It's in the medical sphere, and the criminalization of opioids.”